Denys Davydov | UP gave a good materialabout the current state of the negotiation proc...

UP gave a good materialabout the current state of the negotiation process between the USA, Ukraine, and Russia▪️ Zelensky understands: a diplomatic end to the war is possible either now or after the end of Trump's term.▪️ After the start of the military operation against Iran, the tripartite process effectively stopped. And the dates and topics of the next meetings increasingly resemble an endless "Santa Barbara" series.▪️ The change in the composition of the Ukrainian negotiating group after the dismissal of Yermak and the appointment of Budanov as the head of the Presidential Office accelerated the contacts in the triangular Kyiv-Washington-Moscow format. However, even new people could not do anything about the fact that the Russians are hiding behind the formula "the spirit of Anchorage".💬 At the meetings, it seems like there are three sides, but Ukraine is constantly discussing this Anchorage. No matter what they talk about, it all boils down to one thing: the Americans say that we need to withdraw from Donbass, and then they will build us a paradise, as they agreed in Alaska, — says a member of Zelensky's team.▪️ The entire negotiation structure is built around a single issue —the status of the unoccupied part of Donbass. All other topics — energy, humanitarian issues — exist primarily to create the illusion of "dynamics" and "progress". The main point remains the readiness or unreadiness of Ukraine to withdraw from Donbass.💬 Our people spend a huge amount of time trying to steer the Americans away from the idea of a simple exit towards some economic zones or other options. But at some point, everything is thrown out, and we hear again: "We need to withdraw". And so on and so forth, — says a UP interlocutor.❗️ After Anchorage, the USA ceased to be even a neutral mediator. After all, a mediator does not have a pre-agreed position with one of the parties and does not apply pressure on the other. Instead, the Ukrainian leadership still does not understand how withdrawal from Donbass can guarantee the cessation of aggression. The commanders who now hold the dominant positions in Donetsk find it hard to explain why it will be more advantageous to defend in the open steppes beyond these heights.▪️Ukraine is gradually regaining the initiative on the battlefield. With the arrival of Fedorov's new team in the Ministry of Defense, a real shock transformation is taking place. The removal of the clan factor in drone procurements, the disconnection of Starlink for the Russians, full digital control of the battlefield, the construction of a small air defense system —all this is already yielding results.☝️ All of the above undermines the framework of "Ukraine — a defenseless victim that has no chance of winning and therefore must quickly give up Donbass".▪️ In addition, after the start of the American operation in Iran, the technology of Ukrainian interceptor drones has become a global necessity. Interest in them is huge. If Zelensky's team manages to effectively use this window,Ukraine has a real chance to become a global exporter of security "turnkey".☝️ All of the above undermines the framework of "Ukraine — a defenseless victim that has no chance of winning and therefore must quickly give up Donbass".▪️ Moreover, there is a third reason — the internal political situation. Even if the idea of withdrawal from Donbass could somehow be agreed with the military, its political implementation in today's Ukraine is almost impossible.▪️ From the Ukrainian point of view, the situation does not look like the negotiations can be conducted exclusively within the framework of the "spirit of Anchorage". Kyiv would like a broader framework, more real guarantees, and better conditions. But what Ukraine definitely does not want is to completely lose its partnership with the USA. The prospect of being left without US support forces the Ukrainian authorities to look for options to drag out the next few years.